Technical editor's note: The material presented here is not part of the published RM-GTR-295, but was drafted by the Southwest Forest Ecosystem Health Team during the assessment. It is reproduced here for information only.

Management Scenarios

"Ecological management need not be an attempt to return the system to some pristine condition. Nevertheless, good management will create situations that are sustainable. Sustainable solutions can only be achieved if the manager works with the underlying processes in the system to be managed, not against them."

Timothy Allen and Thomas Hoekstra (1992)

The guidelines of the draft National Framework for Integrated Ecological Assessments recommend including a description of management scenarios that might exist under various policy strategies. These scenarios describe the outcomes expected by the assessment team from implementing various broad policies of resource management. The purpose of these projections is to identify the merits, drawbacks, and tradeoffs to forest health that may result for contrasting management policies.

Four forest health management scenarios are described to reflect forest management issues and address social and economic needs and concerns. The scenarios are: 1) minimum management (minimum expenditure of personnel and funds), 2) an adaptive ecosystem management approach, 3) management under the current forest plans as amended by the owl/goshawk guidelines, and 4) an emphasis on commodity production within sustained-yield parameters. Each scenario is a possible management strategy that will move the forests within the Southwestern Region toward various states of forest health.

Scenario descriptions include a definition and predicted trends for principle ecosystem management indicators, such as the human dimension, grazing, wildlife, fire, timber harvest, forest insects and pathogens, exotic plants, succession and competition, and riparian habitat. These components of forest ecosystems are selected because they are features that are managed for, directly influence forest health, and are used as indicators of forest health.

It should be noted that these scenarios are not alternatives for proposed actions. They are presented as a way to display various trends that may occur under different types of management. Over time, no one scenario may prevail. The choice of management strategies may change as social and political needs and persuasions change. Over broad scales, different management strategies may be employed over different areas of the landscape. This assessment helps identify trends that various resources would be expected to follow as one management direction is selected over another.

The forest health team developed these scenarios over a series of group meetings. Projected trends are the opinions of the team, based on observed responses to various management regimes over time and ecological theory. Predicting changes in ecosystems resulting from management activities is an inexact science, particularly given the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Therefore, projected trends are not expected to occur in every stand or watershed; but on a broad scale, these trends are likely to generally occur.

A fifth scenario for "a return to pre-settlement conditions" was considered by the team, but it was judged to be unrealistic to implement and impossible to predict. Under this scenario, management would have the objectives of returning forest conditions to those prevailing before the Colonial Period and then maintaining conditions as though they were natural or pristine. Returning ecosystems to such arbitrary conditions as may have existed about 1500 A.D. may not be ecologically possible even if social, political, and economic barriers could be overcome. Since 1500 A.D., the human population has greatly increased and continues to expand. Not only are there more people, but also there is also a demand for a better standard of living which requires more space and more resources. Returning our regional ecosystems to pre-settlement conditions would require a large decrease in the human population, increased exploitation of ecosystems outside the Southwest, and a reduction of the average standard of living. Even if these cultural requirements could be realized, it may be ecologically impossible to re-create former ecosystems. Ecosystems today are more fragmented, and their integrity has been altered. Some species have been lost or reduced to small numbers; other species have been introduced and replaced native species. Even without human influence, ecosystems are constantly changing in response to geologic, climatic, evolutionary, and successional processes; every time and place is unique. Because of physical changes to the environment and establishment of new biotic relationships, former landscape patterns and species associations are unlikely to develop and persist under any imaginable management scheme. Therefore, for both social and ecological reasons, this scenario was rejected as a viable management strategy.

MANAGEMENT SCENARIO 1–MINIMAL RESOURCE USE AND MANAGEMENT

In this scenario, management activities (recreation, grazing, restoration activities) and extraction of resources (timber harvests) are reduced, thereby minimizing commitment of personnel and dollars. Fire suppression is prioritized to situations affecting life and property. Law enforcement protection of resources is continued.

Human Dimension

Communities dependent on forest product industries will continue to decline, as the number of jobs in extractive industries decreases over time. The highly unpredictable nature of product outputs under management that greatly restricts resource harvesting would not provide an economic climate favorable for stable or increasing employment.

Recreation capital, investment, and maintenance of existing facilities will decline under minimal resource management, resulting in the Forest Service being unable to meet recreational demands on national forest lands. The increase in use of national forests for recreation activities is occurring faster than forest management can accommodate. This recreational use of forest lands has grown to support an industry larger than timber, and this trend will continue. This scenario will not support the growing recreational demand. The quality of recreation settings and experiences will decline. Heritage sites will deteriorate as demand continues to rise.

The wildland/urban interface will face a high risk of wildfire, but fires threatening life or property will be aggressively fought.

Acceptance of Forest Service policies and action under this scenario will decline during high fire danger. Wildfires will be more extreme and last for longer periods of time. Forest users, such as the timber industry, ranching community, recreationists, etc., will typically be unsupported because there will be less opportunity for extraction of resources or for maintenance and expansion of recreational opportunities. Individuals or groups favoring a reduction in the size of government or who believe in a "hands off" policy for land management will initially favor this policy, but news media coverage of fires in the Southwest will be influential.

Traditional commodity uses will conflict with unmanaged resource use and trespass. Grazing trespass will become more pervasive. With a reduction in timber production within the region, wood products would need to be imported from other regions or countries. Other materials with higher environmental consequences than wood, such as steel studs, would need to be used.

Grazing

Grazing would occur at reduced levels and be administered with a minimal amount of management resources. Grazing would be emphasized only in areas with minimal environmental impacts and social concerns and where a high return on investment with limited expenditure is expected. The level of grazing would be phased out in critical and controversial areas or be significantly reduced to mitigate negative impacts.

Wildlife

Management will continue to emphasize TES and game species. The trend of listing more species will continue. Mule deer populations will continue to decline. The effects of large fires on the landscape will increase populations of elk, intensifying the conflict between elk and domestic livestock.

Grass and forb production in pinyon–juniper forests will continue to decline as these trees become more dominant on the landscape. Since it is uneconomical to treat pinyon–juniper ecosystems, stand density will continue to increase. Wildlife that depends on this typically open community for breeding or for winter range will be adversely affected. Wildfires will do little to improve this situation.

As the landscape shifts to one with less aspen and with more ponderosa pine stands composed of small trees, wildlife species composition will shift accordingly. A continued buildup of downed woody debris and pine needles will continue to reduce grass, forb, and shrub production and vigor. Species that depend on these plants, such as many small mammals and birds, will continue to decline. Large ponderosa pine trees that historically have dominated the landscape will continue to be choked out by the many smaller trees competing for nutrients and will be threatened by the increased fuel loading they provide. With the reduction of large trees, and the snags they become, species such as woodpeckers, nuthatches, and others that depend on these components of the ecosystem will continue to decline.

Large catastrophic fires will provide some relief to the dense ponderosa pine forests that remain, although the short-term effects to many wildlife species could be devastating. If a catastrophic fire occurs in a sensitive wildlife area such as a management area for the Gila trout or southwestern willow flycatcher, the results can be devastating. Snag numbers dramatically increase following these fire events; however, these snags only remain for ten years or so. It then takes more than 100 years to grow the next generation of snags large enough for wildlife use.

Fire

Fuel loading will increase over current conditions. Consequently, destructive crown fires will be larger and more frequent in comparison to historic trends. If fire suppression is limited to protection of private property and human life, then other areas could be expected to burn in a relatively short time (1 to 2 decades), usually with intense, destructive fires.

Timber Harvest

This scenario would accelerate the trend towards high-density forests with high fire and insect hazards, even more than the current management scenario. Overall, other trends would also be about the same as under the current management scenario; but the pace of events would be faster.

Watershed

Large, hot fires may in small local areas reduce soil stability and increase erosion, thereby reducing soil productivity. Extensive grazing management may result in soil compaction in local areas, particularly riparian areas.

Snow storage in mixed conifer and spruce–fir forests will decrease due to fewer openings and reduced flows. In ponderosa pine stands, water yield will continue to decline due to high tree densities, and base flows will decrease due to increased evapotranspiration. Peak flows will continue to be high in pinyon–juniper woodlands whereas base flows will continue to decline due to reduced soil moisture storage. Water quality in some systems may decrease from siltation aggravated by large fires and unmanaged grazing.

Forest Insects and Pathogens

With initial increases in host density, lack of silvicultural sanitation, and more frequent stand-replacing fires, the activity of various forest insects and pathogens is expected to become more irregular and irruptive relative to past and present levels. Dwarf mistletoe, which has become more widely distributed at low levels in some previously managed stands, is expected to increase rapidly following abandonment. Patches of mistletoe, as well as bark beetles and defoliators, will later become more common and persist until stand-replacing wildfires eliminate pathogen, insect, and host from a given site. With fragmentation of the forest by transportation corridors and private land and with continued fire suppression in certain areas, there is no guarantee that pre-settlement disturbance regimes will be re-established in unmanaged areas. Rather, stand development may follow an irregular cycle of growth and replacement at a patch scale in which wildfire, insects, and pathogens are more important than in earlier times.

Exotic Plants

Minimal resource management will result in severe reduction of desirable native vegetation. Exotic plant species will rapidly increase. Forest health will decline without integrated weed management programs. The influence of fire and other natural events will not reduce noxious weed infestations. It will be impossible to maintain ecosystem biodiversity within woodlands, forests and riparian wetlands.

Succession and Competition

The absence of fire will decrease the diversity in pinyon–juniper communities. Production of understory grasses, forbs, and shrubs will continue to decline or remain static. The utilization of understory vegetation will continue to be greater than growth.

Tree density in ponderosa pine stands will increase in forested areas due to the absence of thinning and prescribed fire, although large, stand-replacing fires will occur. Due to crowding, many ponderosa pine trees will be smaller at maturity. Because of the increased stress from dense ponderosa pine stands, trees will not reach extreme old age and will die prematurely (because very old trees are at a competitive disadvantage compared to young trees). Consequently, increasing densities in ponderosa pine stands will result in fewer trees reaching extreme ages than would be the case if there were less competition. Any ecological niches associated with very old trees will be lost, leading to a possible loss of biodiversity. Because of lack of fire, many ponderosa pine stands are already converting to mixed conifer, reducing the total acreage of ponderosa pine; this trend will continue. Due to increasing stand densities, the understory component of ponderosa pine (grasses, forbs, and shrubs) will also continue to decline as canopies close. The utilization of understory vegetation will continue to be greater than growth.

The average tree size of mixed conifer stands will decrease. Without periodic fires, mixed conifer forests will be larger and more densely stocked. Increased stand densities will cause decline or stagnation of understory development. The utilization of understory vegetation will continue to be greater than growth.

Spruce–fir stands will continue to be dense and experience periodic outbreaks of spruce beetle, possibly followed by heavy blowdown. High fuel-loading will result, which will increase the potential of large, high-intensity fires occurring. These conditions are within historic variability.

There will be a continued reduction in aspen in the absence of fire as aspen stands are replaced with conifers. If fires are mostly small, aspen may be lost because regenerated aspen will be heavily browsed and re-establishment unsuccessful. If fire are mostly large, the extent of aspen may increase on the landscape because there is sufficient regeneration for some unbrowsed suckers to become established.

Riparian Habitat

Changes in habitat quality would be site-dependent. Less intensively managed grazing on the landscape, even with fewer livestock numbers, will focus livestock use in riparian areas. The lack of supervised grazing will deteriorate riparian condition beyond that which exists today. Riparian dependent species and those that prefer riparian areas, even if only seasonal preferences, will be adversely affected. Native fish, such as the Sonoran chub and spikedace, as well as exotic game species, such as rainbow trout and channel catfish (Icalurus punctatus) will be adversely affected by reduced habitat quality. Increased dispersed recreational use will further deteriorate riparian conditions, thereby further impacting wildlife depending on this ecosystem.

Channel-bottom habitat diversity will decline due to increased sediments in streams. Riparian vegetation cover and diversity will decline under unsupervised grazing. Presence of exotic plant species will increase. This increase in exotics coupled with a decrease in native plants will decrease overall biodiversity. Effects of floods will increase due to reduced understory vegetation. Channel bank stability will decline. Riparian fragmentation will increase due to unmanaged grazing and recreation. Water demands for urban use will continue to increase, resulting in losses of small riparian habitats.

General Trends

Densities, fuel laddering, and fuel loading are expected to increase under this scenario. Fire will be responsible for numerous episodes of "destruction and renewal" in all forest communities except possibly the spruce–fir. An increased invasion of non-native species will occur. As the timber industry declines, so will our ability to use silvicultural techniques for ecosystem restoration and management.

MANAGEMENT SCENARIO 2–ADAPTIVE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT

This scenario blends management, public opinion, and use of wildland processes to meet long-term ecosystem sustainability and human needs using an adaptive management approach. Adaptive management requires a cyclic process of using the best scientific knowledge available to plan, implement activities, monitor, and then adjust management as needed to achieve and/or maintain long-term sustainability and, at the same time, meet human needs. Northern goshawk and Mexican spotted owl populations are managed in a broad ecosystem context. This scenario does include moving portions of the landscape toward historic conditions, but is not a full return of the entire landscape to these conditions.

Human Dimension

Forest-based industries will be more viable. There will be a reduced risk of loss of lives and property due to reduced fire hazards in urban/forest interfaces.

Recreation demands and needs will continue to be met by integrating recreation opportunities with the biophysical components of ecosystem management. Recreation facilities will continue to expand to accommodate recreational needs and desires. Heritage interpretation and protection will be expanded through collaboration and partnerships with tribes and interested segments of the public. Recreation demands will continue to cause conflict between sustaining natural ecosystems and meeting those demands, especially in the face of an increasing demand for high-quality recreation experiences.

Individuals and organizations embracing ecosystem management will be supportive. Individuals or communities with a short-term view to maximize a particular commodity or service are likely to object to Forest Service actions. A strong education and outreach effort will engage the public in learning to recognize and appreciate a healthy forest. The Forest Service will collaborate with the public and invite the public to be partners in the stewardship of forest resources.

Traditional uses will be more compatible with extractive uses. In the short term, grazing levels would be substantially reduced, affecting many of the traditional cultures and values associated with historic grazing. Subsequent restoration will provide the potential for long-term maintenance and restoration of grazing at increased levels in some areas.

Grazing

Grazing levels will be set to a level compatible with long-term restoration of the land. Considerations and implications for recovery of TES species will be provided. Greater flexibility to adjust and accommodate livestock will be incorporated into the permit system. Traditional views, opportunities, and limitations of grazing will be altered to include a more holistic approach. A collaborative relationship with industry and environmental groups will be developed whereby grazing guidelines are developed in concert with ecosystem capabilities and needs for long-term restoration and productivity.

Wildlife

The focus of management activities on ecosystem processes and long-term ecosystem sustainability will benefit a broad array of species currently overlooked because they are not yet threatened or endangered nor game species. Species such as beaver, northern flicker (Colaptes auratus), and spotted bat (Euderma maculataum) will benefit, not by specific improvement activities focused specifically for them, but by broad ecosystem design. Healthy ponderosa pine forests and riparian areas, as well as the other ecosystems in Southwestern forests, will benefit all the species that inhabit their boundaries. Every species will count. Ultimately, listing of species on TES species lists may slow or even reverse due to healthier, more sustainable ecological conditions and decreased occurrence of large catastrophic wildfires.

Ecosystems, even those not currently being managed for endangered or game species, will be managed to restore natural processes and to provide for sustainability. Wildlife dependent upon aspen, riparian wetlands, grassy openings within woodlands, and forage production within tall forests will increase. These species include a broad array of species including beaver, small rodents, songbirds, raptors, woodpeckers, and nuthatches. Instead of managing large landscapes for one or two species, ecosystems will be restored for the benefit of all species dependent upon them.

The restoration of aspen, the halt in the expansion of mixed conifer into ponderosa pine, and the reduction of the density of many stands will favor wildlife species preferring these habitats with the consequence that their populations will increase. Because these vegetation conditions more closely resemble historic conditions, wildlife populations for some species will come to resemble more closely their historic levels as well. Overall biodiversity will increase because the increased occurrence of fire and the opening of stands will promote understory development and small mammal populations.

Fire

Fire would be better used to meet management objectives. A reduced level of fuels will be maintained on the forest floors. Prescribed and natural fires will be more frequent and lower in intensity. There will be large, landscape-scale fires (scale = thousands of acres in a single fire). These frequent, low-intensity fires will move the ecosystem toward sustainable conditions.

Timber Harvest

This scenario will encourage new industries to be developed to use small logs of diverse species.

Watershed

Soil productivity and stability will improve with range improvements and fire hazard reduction. Because there will be fewer high-intensity fires, erosion will be reduced. Compaction will be reduced by managed grazing.

Water yield from ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests will increase because of less transpiration and interception. Peak flow will be reduced in some small watersheds due to increased infiltration rates. Base flows will persist longer due to increased soil moisture storage and reduced evapotranspiration. Water quality will increase due to improved riparian cover. Local snow storage should improve due to restoration of meadows and openings in mixed conifer and spruce–fir forests.

Forest Insects and Pathogens

With proper forest management regulating tree species composition and density, impacts and outbreaks of many forest insects and pathogens will be closer to their historic range. The objective of adaptive management is not to eliminate these natural processes, but rather to constrain them within desired limits and to direct their activities to preferred areas. Because mistletoes spread slowly and have specific requirements for a living, susceptible host, they are very amenable to silvicultural manipulation at the level of the stand and tree cluster. Effects of bark beetles can be managed through manipulation of stand characteristics such as density, size, and species composition. It is also possible that in the future, semiochemicals (repellents and attractants) may be used to effectively manipulate beetle populations. Similarly, effects of defoliator outbreaks can also be managed through manipulation of forest conditions. In addition, there is limited evidence for enhanced protection from defoliators through host genetic selection. The distribution, abundance, outbreak frequency, and duration of many forest insects and pathogens could be modified to effect changes in stand composition and density that enhance biotic diversity and integrity. Tree mortality caused by these agents would continue, but mortality would be at levels and locations required to provide a continuous supply of snag–cavity sites and to break up the continuity of fuels. Although newly established disturbance regimes may not resemble those of any historic era, they would be less irruptive over large areas and would better meet human needs.

Exotic Plants

The density of exotic plant populations would stabilize with the implementation of integrated weed management programs. If all infestations were treated and properly monitored, a long-term decrease in exotic plant species density and composition will be evident and native plant populations will increase.

Succession and Competition

Coniferous woodlands will assume a more open-tree canopy structure. Productivity of understory grasses, forbs and shrubs will increase due to more open canopies.

Diversity of ponderosa pine age classes will increase, and stand density will decrease. Many ponderosa pine trees will be larger at maturity because they are less crowded. Since less crowding will decrease stress within ponderosa pine stands, a few trees will reach extreme ages. Productivity of understory grasses, forbs, and shrubs will increase due to more open canopies.

Mixed conifer stands will be less dense with reduced fuel loading, laddering (fewer stories), and susceptibility to insects. Stands will have more trees that are large and fast growing. There will be less establishment of mixed conifer trees in ponderosa pine stands. Productivity of understory grasses, forbs and shrubs will increase due to more open canopies.

Spruce–fir stands would be managed by density control (thinning) and age control (regeneration) on a landscape basis to maintain structural diversity and various ecosystem processes, such as aesthetic, hydrologic, and wildlife processes. A diverse spruce–fir forest is less subject to large-scale devastation by insect outbreak or wildfire. More open forests would allow for greater grass and forb cover, and meadows within the forests would be better protected from becoming denuded or eroded.

In aspen, the succession to mixed conifer will be arrested. Controlled regeneration will occur. This will probably require changes in the management of deer, elk, and livestock.

Riparian Habitat

The quality and extent of riparian ecosystems will increase. The majority of species currently on the Regional Forester's Sensitive Species list for the Southwestern Region are riparian dependent species or species that thrive in healthy riparian ecosystems. The restoration of healthy riparian areas would be an effective strategy to address TES species needs in the Southwest. TES species such as the southwestern willow flycatcher, ferruginous pygmy owl, as well as many native fish, would be de-listed with aggressive riparian management.

Restoration of riparian areas will significantly increase productivity and diversity of native vegetation, improving the quality of habitat for many terrestrial and aquatic species. Flooding along some unregulated channels will provide more natural disturbance and regenerative function. With efforts to mimic natural processes, sediment loading and movement would tend to mimic historic conditions. Channel and bank stability will increase due to improved vegetative cover. Water demands for urban and agricultural uses will continue to conflict with riparian needs. Riparian fragmentation would decrease due to better grazing and recreation management.

General Trends

Stand densities will be lower than they are today. Stand densities will be maintained at a sustainable level. Biotic and visual diversity will increase across landscapes.

MANAGEMENT SCENARIO 3–CONTINUE EXISTING MANAGEMENT

This scenario represents management under the current forest plans as amended by the Mexican spotted owl and northern goshawk guidelines (USDA Forest Service 1995). This scenario provides a baseline projection of the current and potential futures associated with levels of current management. No adaptive mechanisms are in place.

Human Dimension

Currently, the economic conditions in communities that are dependent on harvesting timber are declining. Under this scenario, the jobs and income derived from timber harvest will continue to decline.

The changes in the use of national forests for recreation are occurring faster than forest management is adapting to new situations. This recreational use of forest lands has grown to support an industry larger than timber. Recreation use levels will continue to grow as population expands. This scenario will not support growing recreation demands but will provide more recreational opportunities than scenarios 1 or 4. For example, scenic quality or watchable wildlife opportunities will not be maintained; and unnatural floods after large fires could increase demand for quality fisheries (especially fly fishing) because of the changes in stream flows and, consequently, fish habitat. The ability to protect and interpret heritage resources will diminish as demand increases. Conflicts with tribes regarding traditional uses and sacred areas will continue.

Urban development will continue to encroach on adjacent forests, and an increasing number of in-holdings will be developed for residential uses. This will especially affect management for wildlife, fire, and timber.

The public has expressed dissatisfaction where active management causes noticeable changes in existing forest and economic conditions. There will be increasing conflicts among resource users because current management does not reflect changing social values. The public will reject restrictions on their activities in forests (such as the injunction prohibiting the cutting of firewood, Christmas trees, etc.). The decline in public acceptance will require additional Forest Service educational programs.

Aesthetics will remain an important characteristic of forests and under this scenario may decline.

Traditional commodity uses will continue to conflict with other resource management objectives such as developed recreation. Societal and demographic changes will heighten the controversy between grazing and other uses of the land.

Grazing

Within forested areas, livestock and wild ungulate grazing capacities will continue to decline due to continued encroachment of woody vegetation. Application of the Standards and Guidelines for the northern goshawk and Mexican spotted owl will enhance recovery on nonforested and riparian areas but will require downward adjustment in grazing until restoration occurs.

Wildlife

Wildlife management will continue to emphasize TES and game species. Current trends in forest conditions will result in increased listings of TES species. Some big game populations, such as mule deer, will continue to decline. Increases in elk numbers will further impact grasslands, meadows and riparian areas.

Aspen stands will continue to become a smaller component of our landscapes. Ponderosa pine forests will continue to become more dense and intermixed with firs. Riparian ecosystems will continue to degrade or stagnate. Increased accumulation of pine needles and woody debris will further reduce the density and abundance of grass, forb, and shrub species. With the decrease in biological diversity in these communities, there will be a corresponding loss of diversity of wildlife populations dependent upon them.

Fire

Fuel loading will increase in forested areas where fire has not continued in its natural role. Consequently, the number and size of stand replacement fires will increase. As the size and intensity of fires increase, re-scaling of the landscape will result in long-term changes to various ecological processes.

Increased fuels and an increased population within the wildland/urban interface will result in extreme hazardous fire situations, with serious threats to life and property. High-intensity fires can be extremely hot and very large; these fires may cause soil damage and reduce forest productivity for extremely long time periods.

If fires were not excessively damaging to the soil, tree planting were minimal, and subsequent low-intensity fires were permitted at historic frequencies, then large fires could very slowly return forests to historic conditions. This would take hundreds of years and would reduce the availability of timber resources for human use.

Timber Harvest

Forest plans called for logging about 435 million board feet (MMBF) per year. The annual growth is about 700 MMBF per year. This means that there would be an annual increase in woody biomass of about 265 MMBF per year. This increase occurs on suitable timberlands only; and it does not include wilderness, other restricted areas, or lands physically unsuited to timber management. The difference between growth and harvest means that stand density would continue to gradually increase and that average age of the forests would also gradually increase until the forests were destroyed or thinned by natural means like insect attacks or fires. If natural events were allowed to reduce forest densities, the results might be more extreme than if humans do it using mechanical methods. Uncontrolled insect outbreaks can cover very large areas with widespread mortality. Insect or disease killed trees can contribute to fire hazard.

Watershed

Large, hot fires may reduce soil stability and increase erosion in small local areas; fire and erosion would reduce soil productivity. Extensive grazing may result in soil compaction in local areas, particularly riparian areas.

Peak flows will continue to be high in pinyon–juniper woodlands while base flows will continue to decline due to reduced soil moisture storage. In ponderosa pine communities, water yield will continue to decline due to high tree densities and the base flows will decrease due to increased evapotranspiration. Snow storage in mixed conifer and spruce–fir will decrease due to fewer openings, reducing flows. Water quality may decrease in some systems due to siltation from large fires and unmanaged grazing.

Forest Insects and Pathogens

Under the constraints of this scenario, forest insects and pathogens would be regulated on more productive and accessible sites where economics justify investment. Because forest products have low unit value, control would emphasize sanitation and salvage rather than therapy. Eventually, on production areas at least, mistletoe populations would be less than under other scenarios. A higher percentage of lightly infected trees than occurred in historic periods, however, could be tolerated. Although bark beetles and western spruce budworm outbreaks would still occur, their frequency and severity would be overall less than under minimum management. To protect investments on productive sites and to avoid other damages, some level of pest control would probably be exercised on most areas. At these locations, insect and pathogen activities would probably be approximately similar to levels expected under the adaptive management scenario.

Exotic Plants

Invasive exotic plant species will continue to aggressively replace native plant species. As proven in other regions of the national forests, the encroachment of these undesirable non-native weed species will have negative economic effects from significant reductions in forage production, unacceptable watershed conditions, and loss of TES species habitat. Invasive exotics will be an obstacle in meeting forest plan goals and objectives.

Succession and Competition

The absence of fire will decrease the diversity in pinyon–juniper communities. Production of understory grasses, forbs, and shrubs will continue to decline as canopy closure continues to increase. The utilization of understory vegetation will continue to be greater than growth.

Stand density in ponderosa pine will increase due to the absence of fire. Many trees will be smaller at maturity from overcrowding. Because of the increased stress of dense ponderosa pine stands, trees will not reach extreme ages. Because of lack of fire, many ponderosa pine stands will convert to mixed conifer, reducing the total acreage of ponderosa pine. Also, due to increased stand densities, the understory component of ponderosa pine (grasses, forbs, and shrubs) will continue to decline as canopy closure increases. The utilization of understory vegetation will continue to be greater than growth. These effects are similar to scenario 1, but the level of change under this scenario is less.

Because of successful recruitment in younger age classes, the average tree size of mixed conifer stands will decrease. Mixed conifer forests will increase in extent and have greater densities due to the lack of fire. Due to increasing stand densities, grasses, forbs, and shrubs will continue to decline as canopy cover continues to increase. The utilization of understory vegetation will continue to be greater than growth. Mixed conifer forests will continue to encroach upon meadows. These changes would be less dramatic than under scenario 1.

Because of the relatively high commercial value of spruce over fir, these stands would be extensively managed with a preference for spruce. However, because growth is slow on these cold sites, the large diameters of old-growth stands would not be attained. With good density control and prompt sanitation/salvage, losses to spruce beetle could be minimized.

There will be continued reduction in aspen in the absence of fire. Small fires may result in a total loss of aspen because the aspen regenerated by small fires will be completely consumed by browsing animals, prohibiting re-establishment. Large fires may increase the amount of aspen in the landscape, if there were sufficient aspen regeneration and enough unbrowsed aspen sprouts to regenerate the area.

Riparian Habitat

Wildlife species that depend on or prefer riparian ecosystems will continue to decline or remain at low numbers. Brown-headed cowbird parasitism on many small songbirds will continue to be pervasive due to readily detectable nest sites caused by the lack of dense riparian vegetation. Insectivorous bird species which prefer slow-moving, insect-rich boggy areas will continue to decline due to the lack of vegetation and beaver activity.

Stream siltation will increase due to soil instability in stands with replacement fires. Channel substrate diversity will decrease due to increased fines in the system. Grazing trespass will continue to cause a decline in riparian vegetation cover and diversity. The presence of exotic plant species will increase. The increase in exotics, particularly saltcedar, coupled with a decrease of native plants will decrease biodiversity. Stability of channel banks will decline; erosion will also cause a decline in habitat quality. Competition between urban and agricultural water needs and wildland needs will increase. Riparian areas will become more fragmented due to grazing and recreation impacts.

General Trends

Forests are not in a sustainable condition and are more cyclic than in the past. The cycle starts with very dense stands followed by major disturbances and then back to dense stands again. Timber harvesting is less than growth, and more forests will be moving into late successional stages. As the timber industry declines, so will our ability to use silvicultural techniques for ecosystem restoration and management.

MANAGEMENT SCENARIO 4–EMPHASIZE OUTPUTS OF GOODS

This scenario projects future ecological conditions if commodity production (timber harvesting and grazing). Forest protection is emphasized within sustained yield limits while giving secondary consideration to non-commodity uses and services (recreation, restoration not directly related to commodity production). Timber harvest activities include a mix of industry and traditional wood use. There is a high investment in fire management and insect and pathogen management.

Human Dimension

Economies of some small communities could benefit from increased timber harvest, although these economies could be negatively affected if recreation visitor use declines.

Overall, there will be a decline in developed and undeveloped recreation opportunities. Backlogs in maintenance of trails and campgrounds will increase.

The environmental community will be increasingly upset with the Forest Service, and an increase in appeals and lawsuits will be likely. Timber and ranching communities will be supportive; communities with economies dependent on tourism will not. Recreationists will generally be opposed to Forest Service policy and actions, except where individual projects improve hunting access or recreational opportunities for mountain biking and cross-country skiing on logging roads. Visitors to the forest for scenic and heritage opportunities and spiritual renewal will not be supportive. Conflicts will increase where commodity use occurs in areas of religious significance to Native Americans and where protection or mitigation of heritage sites impedes commodity production.

From a visual quality perspective, there will be fewer large trees for public viewing and for diversity.

Traditional commodity uses will be maintained through large and small offerings of timber and through grazing permits.

Grazing

Methodologies to compute allotment capacity based on land characteristics will be used to compute maximum permitted use of livestock. Increased management and reduction in the levels of grazing will be necessary in the short term and would cause significant impacts on historic economic and cultural values associated with grazing of the rangeland resource. However, for the longer term, sustained economic benefits would be realized. Maintenance of cultural and historic grazing uses could be realized by improving rangeland. Intensive management and investment activities, coupled with short-term reduction in grazing levels, will be necessary to achieve rangeland restoration.

Wildlife

Management will emphasize TES and game species of wildlife and fish, heightening conflicts with the Endangered Species Act. The trend of listing more species will continue and accelerate.

Intensive timber management will create a greater diversity of age-classes and density of trees in treated areas. The overall diversity of forested habitats will increase except for mixed conifer old growth outside wilderness areas. Increased vegetative diversity will result in a corresponding increase in wildlife diversity. Increased road densities are likely to reduce the suitability of habitat for many species. Unauthorized fuelwood harvest, a result of increased road density, will reduce snag numbers and thus the habitat for species dependent on snags and logs.

Large-scale prescribed and natural fires will benefit a broad array of species by opening up the forest canopy, removing woody debris, and reducing the risk of catastrophic wildfire. Increased grass, forb, and shrub production that will result will benefit many species that do not favor dense conditions.

Fire

Mechanically treated areas will provide opportunities for a reduction in fuel loads and stand densities requiring specific fuel treatments. Prescribed and natural fires will be frequent and intensely managed. Increases in mechanical treatment will create a corresponding decrease in high-intensity fires on treated areas. Through prescribed and natural fire programs, fire hazards near developments will decrease. This scenario will provide opportunities to have heavy equipment available in remote areas when major wildfires occur.

Timber Harvest

Silvicultural activities will have a goal of maintaining even-aged stands at moderately high densities of the more valuable tree species such as ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, and Engelmann spruce. Understudies will be reduced in density and species richness to provide maximum growth of commercial trees.

Watershed

Soil productivity in coniferous woodlands will increase in treated areas where slash is dispersed over bare soil. Soil productivity is likely to remain the same in ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests. Intensive management and short rotations will likely impair long-term productivity in mountainous ecosystems where natural nutrient inputs through atmospheric, geological, and biological pathways are typically low. Local soil movement may increase in larger harvest areas and access systems. The extent of soil erosion will depend on how well the roads are built and maintained. Existing roads will provide sufficient access to most areas. Soil compaction from timber harvest would be greatest in this scenario.

There will be more soil moisture in coniferous woodlands due to reduced evapotranspiration and improved infiltration. Flows will increase in springs and base flows will be more persistent due to more soil moisture storage. Sediment yields will be a function of road density, design, and maintenance. Water yields will increase due to reduced evapotranspiration and snow accumulation in ponderosa pine, mixed conifer, and spruce–fir due to restoration of meadows and openings. Water yields will increase in riparian areas due to increased tree removal. Peak flows will be moderated in small watersheds due to increased infiltration rates.

Forest Insects and Pathogens

There will be more emphasis on silvicultural control of insects and pathogens, at least within the more productive parts of the forest. Overall, populations of these "pests" could be much lower than in the other scenarios. In some cases, intensive management could reduce them below their historic variability.

Over time, with intensive management, dwarf mistletoe levels could be reduced considerably. Outbreaks of bark beetles will still occur, but these may be much less severe and have less impact than in the other scenarios. Outbreaks of western spruce budworm will still occur, but these will potentially be much less severe and have less impact than in the other scenarios.

Exotic Plants

Commodity production will increase with full containment and control of undesirable plants. Greater livestock use will assist in keeping exotic plants in check, slowing down the rate of spread. Integrated weed management, including the use of pesticides, will be dependent upon cost-effectiveness. When cost-effective, invasive species will be contained and controlled to enhance forage production. When not cost-effective, population and density of exotic plants will greatly increase. Regardless, wildlife and riparian habitat will be adversely affected since it will be a secondary non-commodity use and service.

Succession and Competition

In coniferous woodlands, there will be more of an open savanna structure, with more grasses, forbs, and shrubs in openings. Understory vegetation is expected to remain similar to the current situation.

Ponderosa pine as a type will have an increase in the diversity of age classes. Understory vegetation will be expected to remain similar to the current situation.

Mixed conifer as a type will have an increase in the diversity of age classes, but there will be little old growth present. Understory vegetation will be expected to remain similar to the current situation.

The densities of spruce–fir stands will be controlled. Spruce–fir stands will be less susceptible to insect outbreaks. Understory vegetation will be expected to remain similar to the current situation.

The restoration of aspen will be a low priority due to its low product value. However, extensive harvesting in mixed conifer areas would encourage sprouting above present levels. Aspen would probably increase as a component of mixed conifer, but decline as a forest type due to fewer large fires. Regeneration harvests in mixed conifer stands could also result in increased aspen regeneration early in the timber rotation.

Riparian Habitat

Improved grazing management strategies will provide for healthier riparian ecosystems, benefiting riparian-dependent species and other species that prefer riparian areas. With the gradual recovery of this ecosystem, some riparian dependent TES species could be de-listed.

Water demands for urban and agricultural uses will continue to stress some riparian systems. Effects of floods will be reduced due to an increase in understory vegetation. Channel substrate diversity will increase. Tree age-class diversity will increase, although fewer large trees will be found in riparian communities that include ponderosa pine. Production and diversity of riparian vegetation will improve with management and controlled levels of use. Channel bank stability will improve due to increased vegetative cover.

General Trends

Stand densities will generally decrease but remain at levels where most of the biological production will be concentrated in tree biomass. There will be fewer larger trees, old trees, snags, and large woody debris. There may be more tree plantations.